Scenarios of human and biophysical change form an almost ubiquitous backdrop to global change studies and assessments, linking climate change to its anthropogenic drivers and impacts, and providing a context for reasoning about adaptation and mitigation measures. While scenarios have evident value in bridging across disciplines, in tackling complexity, and in communication between researchers, policymakers and the general public, the scenario approach also raises scientific and methodological questions worthy of discussion.
The workshop illuminates scenarios and their application in climate and impact modelling, empirical process studies, social science analysis and global change assessment, thus linking key perspectives, themes and expertise within BECC and MERGE. Aims are to encourage new interactions between BECC and MERGE researchers, and to promote the ongoing development of our twin research environments through academic exchange around a major unifying theme.
Here are links to some of the presentations from trom the day (in cronological order):
- Welcome and visions for MERGE-BECC collaboration in the coming years – Paul Miller & Henrik Smith, Lund Universit, Solicited talks on different aspects of the scenario process
- Narrating climate futures – power and limitations of scenarios to catalyse societal responses to global environmental change – Johannes Stripple, Lund University
- Global socio-economic storylines and the IPCC-catalysed scenario process RCPs, SSPs, SPAs, who, how, what and why – Detlef van Vuuren, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
- Climate modelling, CMIPx and CORDEX, populating the RCP scenario matrix with climate model projections – Rälf Döscher, SMHI
- Interpreting scenario assumptions – constructing coherent projections of global and regional socio-economic, climate, ecosystem and land use change for the 21st century – Ben Smith
- Propagating uncertainty in climate and impact models: detecting robust patterns among the uncertainty – Guy Schurgers, University of Copenhagen
- Hindcast scenarios – reconstructing past land use-ecosystem-climate interactions – Behnaz Pirzamanbein, Lund University
- Management impacts on biodiversity in Swedish cultural landscapes –Reflections on how future scenarios could provide added value to my research – Yann Clough, Lund University
- Accessing, using and distributing scenario data – the DataGuru platform – Veiko Lehsten, Lund University
- Reflections on a common theme of BECC and MERGE – VOCs, carbon cycle and atmospheric aerosols – Janne Rinne, Lund University
- Downscaling GCM scenarios – how, why, where and when? – David Rayner, University of Gothenburg
- Final reflections – Håkan Pleijel, University of Gothenburg