Integrated ecological modelling
Aims to identify potential synergies between models, research groups and disciplinary teams to promote the improvement and application of models for the analysis of patterns, trends and variability in biodiversity and ecosystem services in a changing climate.
Particular emphasis is placed on the combination of different kinds of models, and of modelling and empirical approaches, for better prediction and analysis, particular at larger spatial and temporal scales, and to characterise uncertainty in projections of future changes. This cluster also takes responsibility for identification/development of scenarios for use in this and the other clusters of BECC.
These are the major research areas within Integrated ecological modelling:
Data assimilation and multi-model integration
This research area is includes data assimilation, the process by which observations (or information) from multiple sources is combined and incorporated into system models. Making predictions of future states to inform policy making may involve one or several models that need to be integrated. It could for example be to combine station and satellite measurements with output from climate/ecosystem models to provide combined results for temperature and vegetation cover. We use and discuss principles that take different sources and types of uncertainty into account in scientific research as well as when evidence feeding into policy recommendations heavily rely on (quantitative) modelling.
Read more about the research here and read more about Scaling up uncertain environmental evidence here
Scenarios and climate data
This research area investigates the potential for use of common scenarios and data sets, as an integrating element within BECC to promote inter-comparison and synthesis. One part is also the development of a web based “data tool” which allow the user to choose a resolution, spatial and temporal extend, data source and output format and number of climate variables.
Read more about Dataguru here
Land-sea interactions in a long time perspective
This project intends to coordinate the development of the methodology for determination and quantification of the impact of long term land-use on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and for data-model comparison. Our overall aim is to have a catchment wide perspective on land use change and its consequences on land and on the coastal zone and beyond. Furthermore we are interested in better understanding the linkage between, climate, vegetation and land use.
The aim of this research is to drive the integration of ecological and economic models, thereby facilitating the interdisciplinary research that is needed for addressing climate change related problems. Agent Based Modelling (ABM) of agricultural land use change is the main platform for linking human behaviour and with other modelling in BECC. Using this approach we can for example link drivers of land use change (economics) to impacts of land use change on biodiversity (ecology) and impacts of changing weather patterns (climatology) on crop yields (agronomy), but also effects on flows of ecosytem services to society (geography).
Read more about the research here
Agent-based modelling of multi-level decision making in Swedish forestry
This research area focuses on understanding the decision-making of forest-sector actors, from individual to regional and national policy levels, in response to impacts of climate change on forest production, damages and management costs, as well as non-economic forest ecosystem services, such as biodiversity values. The project uses agent-based models to represent the actors, their interactions and responses to external forces, as a tool for analysing and visualising the potential consequences of alternative scenarios and policies on forest landscapes and their ecological and economic outcomes. The project brings together ecological economic modelling with process-based modelling of forest production, dynamics and damages, as well as policy analysis.
This research is carried out in collaboration with the Mistra SWECIA programme.
Modelling vegetation migration and plant species range shifts
Phone: +46 (0)46 222 43 54
Email: Benjamin.Smith [at] nateko.lu.se
Deputy cluster coordinator
Phone: +46 (0)70 978 20 56
Email: Henrik.Smith [at] biol.lu.se