BECC-MERGE annual spring meeting
This year's spring meeting will advance the common understanding of scenarios of land use and land cover changes, their contributions to climate mitigation and adaptation, as well as their effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services.
A common understanding is the basis for developing joint research activities in BECC and MERGE for comprehensively assessing the effects that various policies, such as the climate and environmental policies, may have for climate change, biodiversity, ecosystem services and water or air quality.
The following specific questions are addressed, broadly covering two main topics:
- What do available land use and land cover scenarios mean for biodiversity and ecosystem services? How representative are these land-use and land-cover scenarios for Sweden? Are the baselines of land use and land cover valid for Sweden? What changes in land use and land cover can be expected in response to the Swedish environmental and climate policy?
- What are the assumptions behind the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways? How are the SSP scenarios derived and what are the ‘marker’ scenarios? How are the land use and land cover changes for the SSP scenarios determined and how are the homogenized? What are the basics of Integrated Assessment Models and how can they be further developed to have an improved/more comprehensive representation of land use and land cover changes?
Day 1, May 11th
12:45 Check-in in Zoom
13:00 Welcome by SRA leaders Henrik Smith and Paul Miller
News and visions for MERGE-BECC collaboration in the coming years.
13.20 Welcome by the organizing committee
13.30 Session 1 – What we should know about scenarios
Scenarios are a powerful tool in land-use and climate science, yet their diversity and complexity mean that their exact nature, strength and limitations remain insufficiently known to many environmental scientists, arguably hampering both science and progress towards a more sustainable future. This session helps bridge this gap with contributions from leading scientists with extensive expertise in scenarios and their uses.
Chair: Yann Clough
“On what to consider when using scenarios in ecology”
Professor Wolfgang Cramer, Mediterranean Institute for marine and terrestrial biodiversity and ecology, Aix
“Next generation of land system models and scenarios: incorporating ecological processes when modelling impacts of and interactions with land use change”
Professor Almut Arneth, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen
"The past as a key to improve future scenarios"
Professor Hans Linderholm, MERGE and BECC (University of Gothenburg)
14.45 Discussion groups – Scenarios: what is available and what is needed?
Stefan Olin, Wilhelm May and Jagdeep Singh
- Biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem services
- Forest landscapes
- Agricultural landscapes
- Wet ecosystems
- Urban landscapes
- Air quality, across landscapes
- Governance of landscapes
16:30 END OF MEETING DAY 1
DAY 2, May 12th
09:00 Introduction to the day
09:05 Session 2 – Scenarios in decision and governance
Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Scenarios are often co-developed with stakeholders involved in applications, but it has also emerged as a scientific field of its own. This session discusses the use and production of scenarios in decision making and the way in which decision makers deal with uncertainty.
Chairs: Jessica Coria and Stefan Olin
09:10 "Scenarios in decision theory"
Associate Professor Ullrika Sahlin, BECC and MERGE (Lund University)
09:30 "Scenarios in policy-making"
Associate Professor Åsa Knaggård, BECC (Lund University)
09:50 Break – get fika
10:00 “Cost based approach to ecological and economic compensation in public policy and investments”
Professor Ben Groom, University of Exeter, Dragon Capital Chair in Biodiversity Economics
10:40 “Next generation of land system models and scenarios: behavioural modelling of land use change”
Professor Mark Rounsevell Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch- Partenkirchen
11:15 Discussion groups – Looking backwards and forwards: the Swedish context
Chair: Wilhelm May
- Scenarios for Sweden: For which users and purposes and how to define and construct them?
- Biodiversity and ecosystem services
- Air quality
- Carbon budget
- State of the Swedish environment: What do we know and what is missing and how to obtain the missing information
- Air quality (e.g. greenhouse gases, volatile compounds and aerosols)
12:30 Break for lunch
13:15 Wrap up of the groups
14:00 Summary of the meeting
14:10 END OF MEETING
BECC PI-meeting starts 14.30, see below for program!
Most Welcome to join via Zoom!
Organizing group: Louise C Andresen, Stefan Olin, Wilhelm May, Yann Clough and Jessica Coria.
14:30–16:00 BECC PI meeting: How to strengthen your societal impact – focus policy development
Daniel Slunge, University of Gothenburg
The long and winding road to impact - Experiences in working with official reports of the Swedish Government
Åsa Knaggård, Lund University
How policymakers make decisions
Nils Grunditz, PR Agency Westanders, writer of MISTRA's handbook on communication
From science to fact based political decisions
15:20 Joint discussion
15.50–16:00 BECC and impact – upcoming evaluation/s
About the event
11 May 2021 12:45 to 12 May 2021 14:30
BECC and MERGE affiliated people
lina [dot] nikoleris [at] cec [dot] lu [dot] se