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Climate-driven phenological change

Predicting climate-driven changes in phenology and their effects on populations using evolutionary game theory

We develop eco-evolutionary models and life-history optimisation models to study adaptive phenology and their effects on ecological interactions and populations. Our work guides the interpretation of changing phenology patterns and enhances the possibility to predict the ecological consequences of climate changes.

Contact Jacob Johansson

Analyses of climate response and phenological mismatch using data from herbarium specimens

Phenological data have emerged as effective tools for studying the impact of climate change on demographic processes. However, it is not clear how the rate and magnitude of phenological changes vary between species or areas and how well dates of first events, such as first-flowering dates, capture biologically relevant shifts in the overall flowering curve of a species.

Long-term field records, spanning the past 100 years of global warming, are lacking for many species. Phenological records from collections in biological museums include samples from a large number of species and locations, and often extend back more than 100 years, providing data for a much longer period than conventional data sets.

The research is focused on the collection and analysis of phenological data from herbarium specimens with special emphasis on abundantly collected, spring-flowering species for which the phenological phase of each individual can be quantified. Data from c. 60 species, representing about 13000 collections from all parts of South Sweden are being analysed to estimate the rate of long-term change in flowering phenology and the year-to-year relationship between flowering time and spring temperature.

Contact Stefan Andersson


We also aim to assess climate change impact on biodiversity in Sweden by utilizing the untapped potential of the use of hindcasted and projected long time series of vegetation pattern (including e.g. the timing of different phenological stages as well as productivity) for the analysis and projection of population success of migratory species over-wintering in wet-dry areas of Africa and the Middle east.

This generates a synergy between vegetation modelling and empirical ecology of birds. We use a vegetation model to extend the temporally limited satellite record in both the past and the future (by projecting vegetation) and derive bird-ecological parameters from this e.g. start of season, length of season, net primary productivity, synchronicity of seasons in Sweden and the winter habitat.

Contact Veiko Lehsten


New Oikos issue on Phenological change and ecological interactions

Special volume "Phenological change and ecological interactions" edited by BECC-researchers Jacob Johansson,  Jan-Åke Nilsson and Niclas Jonzén now published in Oikos (Volume 124, Issue 1, January 2015).

Special volume "Phenological change and ecological interactions" edited by BECC-researchers Jacob Johansson, Jan-Åke Nilsson and Niclas Jonzén now published in Oikos.

You can find the issue here